CNN: Newsroom With Rosemary Church: Ron Brownstein: 'This Is The Big picture Takeaway From The Iowa Poll'

Source:CNN- the big 3 in the Republican Party in Iowa.

"CNN's senior political analyst Ron Brownstein says that the big picture takeaway from the latest Des Moines Register poll of Iowa voters is that Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis have not done enough to close the gap with former President Donald Trump." 

From CNN

I think Ron Brownstein hit the nail on the head (to use an old cliche) about Nikki Haley when he said that: 

"I think she's on track to being the one, viable, alternative, to Donald Trump after Iowa and New Hampshire. But if she doesn't develop a stronger rationale for Republican voters for why they should leave the former President (meaning Donald Trump) who may be generally favorable to him, but who are open to an alternative, she's going to run out of room not long after Ron DeSantis. A decent showing here (meaning Iowa) and a decent showing in New Hampshire, sets herself up for a shot in her home state of South Carolina. But she's going to have to broaden her coalition to put Donald Trump at real risk."

Nikki Haley politically has basically been running for President in the Republican Party, as a high school student running for class president, on just her personal popularity and hoping people will vote for her, because they personally like her, because she's popular, has the right friends, throws the cool party's, maybe one of her parents is a popular celebrity, etc. And not bothering to get into what Haley presidency would look like and why she should be President of the United States. Because details like that tend to bore high school voters.

Back in the summer, Ambassador Haley was running for President of the United States, against Vice President Kamala Harris, as if the Vice President was actually running for President. And then against President Biden, as if she already had the Republican nomination locked up. And then we get into the fall, the debates start happening and she turns her attention to Governor Ron DeSantis, perhaps forgetting the fact that he was buried in the polls with her in the teens, when it came to Republican support, behind of course Donald J. Trump. 

The only person that Nikki Haley doesn't seem to want to run for President against, is Donald Trump. I think that's why she screwed up the civil war question so badly and that perhaps it was attentional. She doesn't want to do anything that can either offend him, or his supporters, as if someone who thinks slavery wasn't that bad of a thing in America, might even consider voting for someone who happens to be East Indian, a woman, a gen-xer, daughter of immigrants, highly educated, very intelligent, well-spoken, etc, all characteristics that MAGA voters don't like in a presidential candidate. 

At some point if Nikki Haley even gets past New Hampshire and is able to even get into the race in South Carolina, she's going to have to start running against the one man, that she really has to defeat, (if Ron DeSantis is no longer in the race at that point) and that of course is Donald J. Trump. She obviously thinks that she's more qualified to be President of the United States and would make a better President than Donald Trump. Otherwise she's wasting a helluva lot of time running for President against him. And perhaps she owes her financial backers a huge refund.

As far as Ron DeSantis, he's the only Republican candidate whose still in the Republican race, whose actually running against Donald Trump for President. He's had two excellent weeks back to back in Iowa and two excellent Republican debates back to back, making the case against Nikki Haley by arguing that Republicans don't actually know what she believes and why she's running for President at all, other than that she wants to be President of the United States. 

While Governor DeSantis has gone after Nikki Haley, at the same time, making the case against Donald Trump by not just pointing out his failures to deliver on his promises like eliminating the national debt and deficit in 4 years, the border wall, and even mentioning the fact that Donald Trump will probably lose his presidential immunity claim, but will probably be a convicted felon and be convicted in Washington this summer, and perhaps still be the Republican nominee for President. As well as talking about what he's already accomplished as Governor of Florida and essentially calling himself the Conservative with results.

Iowa is roughly 30% German-American and 60% Protestant and overwhelmingly blue-collar, especially outside if it's major cities like De Moines. These are obviously Donald Trump voters. But, what we're seeing now in the Republican polling, is even a state like Iowa that's so rural and blue-collar, even these voters are looking for a serious alternative to Donald Trump. 

I think to be the Trump alternative, you have to show why you are not just Donald Trump, but why you would make a better Republican nominee and President than Donald Trump. I think if there's any real surprise on Monday night, it's that Ron DeSantis has a big night. I'm not talking about winning the caucus. I'm talking about emerging as the main alternative to Donald Trump and maybe taking 30% of the vote and beating Nikki Haley by 10 points or something like that and perhaps even coming within shouting distance of Donald Trump. 

For reasons that I already mention, I think this could happen with DeSantis locking in what's left of the alternative vote to Donald Trump and those Iowa Republicans saying that DeSantis is the real Conservative in the race and the real anti-Trump candidate, whose already delivered as Governor of Florida and could deliver as President of the United States as well.

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