The Bulwark: 'George Conway Explains: SCOTUS Order Could Be BAD NEWS For Donald Trump It All'

Source:The Bulwark with Sarah Longwell & George Conway.

"George Conway explains to Sarah Longwell why he thinks everyone is wrong, and the Supreme Court's decision to take up Trump's immunity appeal could be bad news for Trump's reelection bid. George also gives a lesson on immunity and the 14th Amendment." 

From The Bulwark

No offense, but George Conway predicted back in December, I believe, when Special Counsel Jack Smith moved to go past the Court of Appeals and straight to the Supreme Court. And of course SCOTUS denied that as well. And then he predicted in February, that the Supreme Court wouldn't even take this case because the Court of Appeals opinion was strong and correct. And of course on Wednesday, that the Supreme Court decided to take the case. I still think he's an excellent legal analyst, but he's had two major mistakes here. 

Again, I'm not a lawyer and I predicted that this would be 8-1 or 8-0 against Donald Trump, with perhaps just Justice Clarence Thomas ruling in favor of Trump. As I wrote on The New Democrat on Tuesday: 

"I have my own theory here. Justice Thomas seems even more partisan than Justice Alito. We saw that during Donald Trump's appeals to deny Joe Biden the election back in late 2020. He simply turned away a big case that then President Trump had and simply didn't take that case and let the lower court ruling stand. Also, Justice Thomas's wife Ginni, is all in when it comes to MAGA. She was part of the "stop the steal movement" in late 2020 and perhaps one of the organizers 2021 insurrection attempt. 

My theory is that the Court has already ruled against Donald Trump. But they're waiting on whether Justice Thomas will either vote no and go down 8-1 in one of the biggest cases in the history of the Court and be remembered as the one U.S. Justice who believes Donald Trump is above the law. And risk looking pretty bad, perhaps even corrupt and looking like a partisan politician, instead of a judge. Or, will he just recuse himself and not vote at all and save himself from a little historical embarrassment. But that's my theory as an outsider in this case, whose not even a lawyer." 

From The New Democrat

So, I've been wrong about this as well. I think it's all about when the Supreme Court decides this case. I think it's an easy case because there's no one whose above the law in America, including the President of the United States and that includes former President's. So theoretically, SCOTUS could listen to the arguments in late April and then maybe rule on that 4 weeks later, because it's hard to imagine how there's 5 votes on SCOTUS who thinks that anyone in America is above the law.

If  the Court ruled in favor of Donald J. Trump on presidential immunity, it would literally be saying that the Constitution doesn't really exist and neither does the rule of law. At least for politicians that they're more willing to vote for. And that would put the Court's future in jeopardy. 

If Joe Biden wins reelection anyway and Democrats win back the House and not just hold but add in the Senate, the next Congress and a reelected President Joe Biden could come back and say: "Now it's time to expand the Supreme Court, because they now have a major credibility and trust issue." And they would have a good case to make there. So I think it's clear Donald Trump will lose on this. The question is how bad will the loss be for him. 

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