In addition to the weaker-than-expected monthly total of 22,000 jobs added last month and the revised June figures showing the economy shed jobs for the first time in five years, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% from 4.2%"
I don't claim to be an economist... but only because I'm not. Hopefully that's not too simple for anyone who sees this and just seems like a natural fact instead. I guess I could dress up like an economist, or get a blue suit somewhere, perhaps grow a beard, get a pipe, etc... but it's almost 2 months until Halloween. Besides, I gave up Halloween when I was like 15. And if I were to dress up for Halloween... safe bet it wouldn't be as an economist.
My quick analysis about this jobs report, is employers and consumers don't like tariffs. (Don't need to be a Nobel Prize economist to figure that 1 out) When employers are worried about prices going up and equipment and all the things that they need to keep their business going.. when the cost of business for them goes up, or they're worried about their cost of business going up, like with tariffs, they hire less because they're worried about their cost of business too much, to expand their business. When employers hirer less, production also goes down because they have fewer employees working for them.
But what I'm really interested in here, is something I know something about, which is the politics here. As Astead Herndron said on this panel:
"Usually when we get to this point in politics, we ask the question "who is to blame... who will the voters blame?" I think Trump has actually taken care of that question for us because he made such a show about tariffs, he made such a stamp of this as his economy...
As my colleague Derik Schneider said on Tuesday:
"If I'm Ken Martin (the Chairman of the Democratic National Committee) right now, I want September to be about the slowing Trump economy, with weak job growth, rising prices, and weak economic growth, etc and winning the governors races in Virginia and New Jersey, as well as the Epstein files.
Again, if I were Chairman Martin, I don't want September to be the month of Chuck Schumer's government shutdown and when will Federal employees get to go back to work and will the one's who are still working during the government shutdown... will they get paid for the work that they did when the full government reopens, etc.
I don't want the Democratic opposition to be the issue this September and remind voters why Democrats lost in 2024. I want everything to be about MAGA and this MAGA government and their incompetence and corruption, led by their Dear Cult Leader, Donald John Trump...
From The New Democrat
That's the politics of this situation of this moment right now. Republicans are in complete charge of everything in Washington, when you look at the executive branch and Congress. And Republicans will argue that Senate Democrats can block just about everything and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer can stall Congress, pretty much all he wants. Fine. But the key words here are:
"Senate Democrats can block just about everything"
Everything that Republicans have done since taking over in January, has been by themselves. Either though reconciliation through Congress, where the House and Senate can both pass legislation, just by majority vote, with no input from Democrats at all, or through President Trump's executive orders. And remember back in April when the President announced his tariff policy and how much he bragged about that and then go up 5 months later and job growth is even weaker now, and inflation is higher and Republicans are in complete control in Washington.
And if Democrats are smart (meaning we're not talking about Chuck Schumer's government shutdown 2-3 weeks from now) and don't politically shoot all their toes off as they're climbing the hill to take back Congress next year, or at least the House and win a bunch of governors races and legislatures as well, 2026 should be a great year for them.
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