With little chance of passage for legislation to keep the federal government open before the new fiscal year begins on October 1, President Donald Trump instructed federal agencies to prepare for mass layoffs—not temporary layoffs during a typical government shutdown, but permanent layoffs that would leave thousands—maybe hundreds of thousands—of American workers unemployed.
The Washington Post asserted that “the directive increases pressure on congressional Democrats.” This is incorrect. The directive is intended to pressure congressional Democrats because they don’t want to see the civil service decimated, but it does the opposite. By eagerly compounding the negative consequences of a shutdown, Trump is complicating any attempt to pin a shutdown solely on Democrats.
Meanwhile, Democrats are flying close to the political sun by making policy demands in exchange for keeping the government open, focusing on the looming expiration of enhanced levels of Affordable Care Act subsidies. Last week, Senator Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said on the Senate floor, “We want to keep the government open by engaging in bipartisan negotiations, where we can address some of the grave harms Donald Trump has caused to our healthcare system and help Americans with the cost of living.” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries also centered on health care, telling reporters on Wednesday, “Any agreement related to protecting the health care of the American people has to be ironclad and in legislation.”
As I wrote earlier this month, every past attempt to use government shutdowns to extract policy concessions has failed, even when the policy demands are politically popular, because “shutdowns make people forget what you have to say. Public attention shifts to how shutdowns hurt average Americans and how one political party is willing to harm constituents to play political games. Once public opinion quickly turns, the shutdown agitators invariably realize the shutdown failed to provide negotiating leverage and eventually cave.”
Democrats might take solace that Trump is blundering towards at least partial ownership of a shutdown, but they are still at high risk of owning a piece for themselves.
My counsel to Democrats was and is to walk away from the negotiating table completely, because Republicans have already broken faith by clawing back money from the last bipartisan spending deal. With Trump and his budget director explicitly trashing the idea of a bipartisan appropriations process, Democrats have additional ground to say: Republicans want to keep the government open by themselves, so any shutdown is their problem to solve, not ours. If that means Republicans need to suspend or end the filibuster to do it, that’s also on them. Last week, Trump even said of the opposition party, “Don’t even bother dealing with them.”
In a New York Times column, Nate Silver argued Democrats should swap tariffs for health care as the issue to link to keeping the government open, since Trump’s tariffs are demonstrably unpopular and could “drive a greater wedge between Mr. Trump and congressional Republicans.” I believe this still violates the cardinal rule about shutdown demands: No matter how popular the demand is in a vacuum, that popularity will be overwhelmed by the unpopularity of the shutdown.
Silver expressed sympathy for my proposal but fretted, “The message—actually, we’re not negotiating, we’re refusing to negotiate; you have your majorities and all of this is your problem—would require a lot of discipline in practice, and Democrats aren’t very good at that.” I disagree! It’s a simple message succinctly articulated by Nate Silver!
It doesn’t need detailed policy explanations. Reporters can’t probe for weaknesses by suggesting hypothetical compromises. Once Democrats say they’ve walked away from a table that Republicans never invited them to join, there’s essentially nothing left for them to discuss or do. Media attention will quickly shift away from the Democrats, as the focus turns to: So, what will Republicans do to address this crisis?
To quibble with Silver’s summation of the message, “we’re refusing to negotiate” should be replaced with “Trump is refusing to negotiate.” Combined with Trump’s mass layoff plan, this gives Schumer and Jeffries an off-ramp from their current doomed-to-fail strategy. Democratic policies that poll well cannot bring Trump to heel because the president is a budding authoritarian who ignores polls. If you propose an idea that helps people, he will counter with one that harms them and dare you to escalate further.
If it wasn’t clear that Trump and his Republican allies were not good-faith negotiating partners before, it should be now. Forgive the glib sports analogy, but you can’t win a game with someone playing an entirely different game. So, stop playing...
 | |
| SourceThe Washington Monthly: | "Democrats' Shutdown Strategy: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., hold a news conference on the GOP reconciliation bill, at the Capitol in Washington, on Wednesday. Schumer and Jeffries are gambling with government shutdown brinkmanship. But Trump’s plan for mass federal layoffs is proof he won’t negotiate in good faith, and the Democrats should walk away. Credit: Associated Press" |
From The Washington Monthly
As I wrote about the almost Chuck Schumer government shutdown back in March:
"So it looks like Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and company have selected option a, which is to try to block this bill in hopes that Senate Majority Leader John Thune would sit down with Leader Schumer and they would work out a compromise. That's a really risky play. A lot of political incentive for the Majority Leader to say:
"No. We're in charge, we won the elections, we have The White House and Congress. Go ahead and shut the government down and take the blame for it".
Which would be my response even as a Democrat, (from a political standpoint) if the Democrats controlled The White House and Congress right now and someone was drunk, high, stupid, and crazy enough (trust me: plenty of people with all those characteristics at once in Washington) to elect me Senate Majority Leader.
If John Thune doesn't compromise here, this would be the best case scenario:
Senate Democrats relent and buck their leader and maybe 10 of them vote for cloture, just to avid the government shutdown on Friday.
Worst case scenario: the government shuts down this weekend because Leader Schumer holds his members together and. So now we're in a shutdown next week and maybe Senate Democrats relent then because the politics here for them (especially if they're up for reelection in 26) is too bad for them...
From The New Democrat
And as I wrote about this last week:
"There is a very good reason why we've only had 1 government shutdown that was pushed by the opposition party when they were also the minority parry in Congress, but had enough seats in the Senate to prevent funding bills from going through, with just a simple majority vote... at least in the Internet age: this would never work!!!
The Ezra Klein's, the Ron Filipkowski's, and anyone else on the activist far-left in America, will just say:
"Republicans are in complete control of the government. Even a Senate Democratic led shutdown would be blamed on The White House and Congressional Republicans, because they are in complete control. And most Americans don't understand the cloture rule in the Senate".
Fine. But there's 1 big problem with that: Most Americans still get their news from the media. The national Washington media understands Congressional rules and procedures that look like they could've been written in Greek or Arabic, as far as how complicated they are.
The voters will learn very quickly that if the government shutdowns, it will be because of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and his Senate Democrats. If Leader Schumer lost his political brain in the Potomac River or some place... perhaps he went out drinking with Senator Markwayne Mullin 1 night and lost all his brain cells. (Inside Washington joke...
From The New Democrat
And just for a point of clarification: when I said last week about Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's political 'intelligence": "If Leader Schumer lost his political brain in the Potomac River or some place... perhaps he went out drinking with Senator Markwayne Mullin 1 night and lost all his brain cells. (Inside Washington joke...
Yeah. looks like I've overestimated Leader Schumer's political "intelligence" on government shutdowns... at least so far. he still has 4 days and some change to fold faster than the "House Freedom Caucus" when it comes to big government funding bills. Or, like a mouse who is surrounded by a pack of kitties.
Or, maybe Leader Schumer did lose his political brain in the Potomac River 1 night.
Or, Leader Schumer went out drinking with Senator Mullin (inside Washington joke) and gave up his political brain cells for all the alcohol that he could pay for. Perhaps Senator Mullin was an inside plant by The White House to get Leader Schumer drunk one night, so he would be political braindead to even contemplate doing this. (Ha, ha)
This is the point that I want Democrats, especially left-wing Democrats, who read this to focus on and it's from Bill Scher, who is no one's MAGA man or, even a conservative:
"The president’s decision to threaten mass layoffs of federal workers should prompt Democrats to shift course.
With little chance of passage for legislation to keep the federal government open before the new fiscal year begins on October 1, President Donald Trump instructed federal agencies to prepare for mass layoffs—not temporary layoffs during a typical government shutdown, but permanent layoffs that would leave thousands—maybe hundreds of thousands—of American workers unemployed...
So, under The Anti-Deficiency Act, when the government shutdowns, the executive branch, under The White House and Office of Management Budget, gets to decide who is essential and who is nonessential, when it comes to the federal workforce. Meaning, who gets to show up to work, who has to stay home, who has to show up and work for free, during the shutdown.
In case anyone who sees this, was born last night, (and if you are able to read before you even reach 1 day old, I'm fairly impressed) Donald John Trump is currently President of the United States and Russell Vought is currently the Director of the Office of Management and Budget. Do you really want these two "gentlemen" in charge of what stays open and is closed, who gets to go to work, who stays home, who has to work for free, during a government shutdown?
Mr. Vought is 1 of the chief authors of Project 2025, which is a document that lays out how a President Trump could claim and use more executive authority, then the Constitution currently gives the President of the United States. And how they could essentially get away with that. Is this who you want in charge of the government shutdown in Washington?
At least if Congress passed a government funding bill, (whatever you actually think of the actual bill) there are laws there that the courts can protect, requiring the executive branch to spend this amount of money, with this amount of workers in place enforcing those spending requirements. But put Trump and Vought in charge, thanks to your shutdown, there's no one left in place who could even try to hold the President and OMB accountable during a shutdown.
As Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said so himself back in March:
"I believe it is my job to make the best choice for the country, to minimize the harms to the American people. Therefore, I will vote to keep the government open, and not shut it down.
A government shutdown would give President Trump and his allies "the keys to the city, state and country. While the CR bill is very bad, the potential for a shutdown has consequences for America that are much, much worse."
From CBS News
If you are a person of the Left, (whether you personally identity as center, left-wing, or far-left) and you think that shutting the government would be a good thing, because as actress/comedian Nancy Lee Grahn said the other day:
"Democrats, the Republicans are gonna shut down the government which will cause unspeakable pain to Americans. Make them own it. And use that time to explain and educate the world in easy to understand language as to what the Republicans have done, and why THEY and their billionaire benficiaries and donors are to blame for everyone's pain."
From Nancy Lee Grahn
Maybe you are a leftist who thinks this is your way to get back at Donald Trump: "Yeah, man... this is our chance to take a stand against the man!" Or in this case, The Donald. Perhaps unaware that 1969 ended 56 years ago and militant left-wing groups like The Weather Underground and Students For a Democratic Society went out of business not shortly after the 1960s ended... at least on our calendars.
Or, as Nancy L. Grahn said: "Democrats, the Republicans are gonna shut down the government which will cause unspeakable pain to Americans. Make them own it... Which translate to, let the government shutdown and then try to put that blame on the Republicans for it.
And another thing; taking political advice from entertainers, like in Nancy Lee Grahn's case who is so good, it can be difficult to tell when she's being serious... that's like taking medical advice from your local mechanic and ignoring your doctor. Except in that case, you are only putting your own health a risk. But in this case, you are putting the country's economic health, as well as out system of checks and balances, at risk.
Again, as Nancy L. Grahn said: "Democrats, the Republicans are gonna shut down the government which will cause unspeakable pain to Americans. Make them own it... If this is your line of political "thinking" right now, I have some really bad news for you.
Just think about how badly this week as gone for Trump and company:
Jimmy Kimmel back on ABC
Democrats win their 2nd straight House election in 2 weeks, with overwhelming numbers
House Democrats and Representative Tom Massie (Republican, Kentucky) now have the votes in the House to pass the release of the Epstein files
Even Sinclair has brought back Jimmy Kimmel, with their announcement today.
If Chuck Schumer and his Senate Democrats shutdown the government next Wednesday... the media is longer talking about:
Jimmy Kimmel and what he has to say about MAGA and company.
They're no longer talking about Epstein files.
Or another bad inflation report for The White House, or another bad jobs report for The White House.
All they're talking about next week, is the Schumer shutdown. And the American people will learn very quickly who's fault this is. They'll know that Congress can't pass a government funding bill, even though the House already passed 1, because Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer won't let his members vote for cloture on the House bill. Sorry for a lot of inside Washington lingo here. But this is where I live and work.
You can also see this post on WordPress.
No comments:
Post a Comment
All relevant comments about the posts you are commenting on are welcome but spam and personal comments are not.