"Chuck Todd examines the electoral landscape and breaks down the path for Democrats to flip several senate seats and regain control of the chamber from Republicans and President Trump. He highlights North Carolina, Texas, and Maine as pickup opportunities, as well as several midwestern and southern states that could potentially be in play."
To completely clear the air here and put everything out on the record... I didn't like Chuck Todd that much when he was at NBC News and MSNBC. And it wasn't just his cheesy goatee and urban, white-collar, hipster, drinks coffee all day, works and lives out of a loft, persona, that I didn't like about him. I think he came off as some Washington establishment, wishy-washy, reporter, who doesn't want to offend anybody. And that's what concerns him the most. But since he's left NBC News and has gone independent, he now seems to feel the freedom to speak his mind and do some real reporting now.
I'll give credit where credit is due, Chuck Todd suggested that Senator Joni Ernst wouldn't seek reelection in 2026, to serve in the next Congress... almost 2 months ago. And that's why I've linked his video on this post. And to pick up on what Cheri (I used to be a center-right Republican before I was brainwashed by left-wing Hippies) Jacobus said about Senator Ernst and her position on the Medicaid cuts that were part of the "One Big Beautiful Bill", when she said:
"We're all going to die anyway".
Back in early June, I think that was the clue (and maybe Chuck Todd picked up on that as well) that Senator Ernst just wasn't feeling it anymore (to use a pop culture expression) that she had enough and just didn't care anymore, including about her political career. That she had enough of Washington, enough of Congress, enough of being a U.S. Senator, enough of MAGA even and feeling the need to carry Donald Trump's water everyday, just to preserve what's left of her political career.
If Senator Ernst did decided to run for reelection, she would probably be the favorite, even against a popular, mainstream Democrat, who knows how to campaign for both blue-collar voters, as well as college town hipsters and whatever minorities live in Iowa. But it would probably be a tough reelection battle for her.
I've had a hard time finding a concrete number here, but President Trump's current approval rating right now in Iowa, is around 45%. Iowa is a state that the Republican presidential nominee has to win every election, just like with Ohio. It's a big enough state with 3.5 million people (give or take) that it's important for the Republicans in the Electoral College. But a state where it can be competitive, with the right kind of Democrat.
So when a Republican President (like Donald J. Trump) is not even at 50%, when even 50% would be a low number for a Republican, that's bad news for a Republican statewide elected official who is up for reelection. And again as Cheri Jacbous said, I think the Senator doesn't even want to entertain a close reelection battle right now. If she runs at all, she wants to essentially know that she's going to win, or not run at all.
So what does this mean for Senate Democrats in 2026?
To make Chuck Schumer the Senate Majority Leader again, in the next Congress, Democrats need a net gain of just 4 seats. A lot tougher than it sounds. They have 13 seats that are up like in Minnesota, Michigan, New Hampshire, which might be Republicans' best shot at winning any pickups because these aren't MAGA states and they would have to run with President Trump (whether they like it or not) in order to get his voters to the polls for them. So if you look at Senate Democrats chances here, they have to hold their own seats and not lose anything. I think that part is not just doable, but probably likely right now.
But the 2nd part in the Democrats scenario is they still need a net pickup of 4, just to win the Senate back.
So you look at North Carolina with Senator Thom Tillis retiring and former Governor Roy Cooper, who was a popular Democrat there, is probably the now the favorite there to replace Senator Thillis.
Look at Ohio with Republican Senator Jon Husted running to a full-term to replace Vice President Vance in the Senate. Again, The President is under 50% there, blue-collar, populist Democrat Sherrod Brown, who won 3 Senate races there, will probably be Senator Husted's opponent there.
Maine is another solid possibility. Senator Susan Collins is like in the low 40s there and might not even run for reelection. The problem is who do Democrats nominate to run for Senate there. Maine gets stereotyped (and Maine Democrats seem to believe this as well) as a much larger Vermont, a place where both Socialists and Hippies are welcome and feel very comfortable there. And those are the type of Democrats that they tend to nominate statewide there. The problem is, Maine despite being a large state in territory, is almost 100% rural and completely small town, blue collar, and with a lot of small college towns as well. You don't get elected there statewide, if you don't win blue-collar voters, with a majority.
After North Carolina, Ohio, and Maine, I think Iowa now that Senator Ernst is not seeking reelection, is a real possibility for Democrats... with the right candidate, Similar with Maine, Democrats would need a candidate who can win both blue-collar, as well as young, college town, hipsters, who are part-time voters and want to be inspired by a candidate before they vote for that person. So that's Iowa Democrats next task here: finding a candidate to run statewide, who can put that coalition of voters together, who is under 60, (55 or under, would be better) who is popular, with young people, but who can communicate with blue-collar voters as well. And last, but just as important as anything else... who is not a leftist.
Some political analysts are looking at Louisiana, if Senator Bill Cassidy doesn't either run for reelection, or loses the primary to a MAGA member. I'll take a look a Louisiana, when Senator Cassidy is not the Republican candidate there for 26. And the same thing with Texas, if Senator John Cornyn loses the Republican primary to Ken Paxton, that race could become playable, with the right Democrat.
But the House, is probably gone for Republicans right now. The question might only be now how many seats do they lose. Democrats only need 4 seats, but they would obviously like a governing majority. But I think the Senate is in play as well... I've believed that for a few months now. But Democrats might not need a straight flush, but they have to hold their own and probably win North Carolina, Ohio, Maine, and Iowa, to win back the Senate in 26.
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