Roll Call: Political Theater: The Congressional Republican Budget Blueprints

"Usually, when Congress gets down to the wire on a legislative deadline, the Senate tells the House what is possible and the House more or less goes along with what the Senate can pass, given its procedural limitations such as the filibuster. But the budget process, or what passes for the budget process these days, can scramble things a bit, and what we are observing now is a closely divided GOP-majority House turn the tables on the closely divided GOP-majority Senate. Asked about the extent of House-proposed cuts to the Medicaid health program, for instance, Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., replied, “I don’t love that.”

But here we are. In recent days, the Senate and House have both passed versions of their own budget resolution, one of the key steps in constructing a so-called reconciliation bill that will cut spending and taxes and enact GOP legislative priorities without having to deal with the usual Senate roadblocks. But there’s a long way to go until something heads to the president’s desk, so we’re going to talk about what’s been happening and what is going on with CQ Roll Call’s illustrious Budget Tracker, David Lerman." 

Source:Roll Call with a look at U.S. Senator Josh Hawley (MAGA, Missouri)

From Roll Call

As my colleague Erik Schneider wrote about this yesterday: 

"So what this means is the House didn't pass a Federal budget last night and the Senate didn't pass 1 last week. What they did instead was (if Cillizza is correct) is just pass blueprints and lay out their goals for what they want to pass and cut in the Federal budget this year in Congress. So if that's true, then this is where this discussion could be a lot of fun... or at least interesting... at the very least, it no longer sounds like a Senate filibuster where a senator is reading from a phonebook. (Sorry for the Congressional joke) 

So what this means is that House Republicans as of right now, can't even agree with themselves on what to cut from the Federal budget and how much, in order to pass the President's agenda as it relates to military spending, border security, extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts, etc... 

From The New Democrat

As my colleague Rik Schneider wrote about this yesterday:

"And to Carl Higbie's point about "tax cuts automatically paying for themselves": if that were true (and fish could fly and dogs said meow) then how come every time the Republican Party has passed trillions of dollars in tax cuts, they've always had sunset provisions in them? Meaning they expire lets's say 5-10 years later and have to be extended by Congress to stay law. The answer because the Congressional Budget Office (which is Republican controlled) doesn't agree with that line of thinking. ("Thinking" might be too generous of a word here) 

So the CBO tells the House and Senate that they either have to pay for their tax cuts through budget cuts, or raise new revenue up front, or they have to have sunset previsions in them to be able to pass through reconciliation and not be subjected to the 60 vote rule in the Senate. 

I'm all in favor of border security and for a stronger defense in America... depending on how the legislation is structured. But when you campaign on the national debt and Federal deficit being too high, wouldn't you want to do something about those issues once you are in office and have the power to fix those problems? Instead of trying to figure out how you get around your own budget rules and trying to pass your legislation onto the national debt card, through reconciliation?" 

From The New Democrat

On a less serious note first: I think it would easier to balance the 7 trillion dollar Federal budget (that's currently running a 2T$ deficit) then it would be to find the right balance between what would be acceptable to both the House and Senate. Meaning 1 bill that could get a majority vote in both chambers. 

Yes, American voters gave us Donald J. Trump as President and gave us a Republican Congress. The catch is, they gave Republicans bare majorities in both the House and Senate. But the House Republican Leadership and the Senate Republican Leadership are trying to govern as if they have like 250 votes out of 435 in the House (instead of just 219-434) and that they have 60 votes in the Senate out of 100, instead of just 53. 

And cutting Medicaid, just to cut it, or to pay for tax cuts isn't popular right now. And with those tight majorities in Congress, the entire House Republican Conference is not MAGA. They have like 100 members. And there are what's left of the center-right of the Republican Party, that represents blue and swing districts, who are going to be in tough reelection battles next year, who don't want to vote to gut Medicaid and other public assistance programs, just to gut them, or to pay for tax cuts. 

And House Republicans only have a 2 seat majority right now, (put of 435 seats) so if they try to cut too much for the so-called moderates, or not enough for MAGA, there goes their reconciliation budget bill. 

Democrats got a good political lesson in 2022 about overstepping their political mandate from 2020. And now it looks like we are in the very early stages of American voters giving Congressional Republicans a lesson about political mandates as well. And even if Republicans are successful here and get their agenda through Congress, it could be very unpopular and cost them at least the House, if not the entire Congress in 2026. But we will see. 

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