Michael Smerconish: Should Joe Biden Stay Or Go?

Source:Michael Smerconish talking about President Joe Biden's reelection campaign.

"A Challenge To The White House" 

From Michael Smerconish

"If you’d asked me a year ago, I would have told you that Joe Biden was a reasonably clear favorite in the event of a rematch against Donald Trump.

Not an overwhelming favorite, mind you. But perhaps a 65:35 favorite. The case for Biden seemed obvious enough. Incumbents win re-election more often than not — and, of course, Biden beat Trump in 2020. The economy was beginning to recover from a period of intense inflation, and the labor market was strong. Trump had to fade a number of downside risks, being subject to a series of criminal trials and what looked like it could be a competitive Republican primary. (This was before Ron DeSantis began his long and embarrassing decline in the polls). Democrats were coming off a relatively strong midterm, buoyed by voter concerns about extreme and under-qualified Republican candidates and the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.

So I don’t begrudge people who took their time to realize that Biden’s re-election would be a heavy lift. The first time my internal needle began to shift was in late summer, when Biden’s approval numbers remained poor even as the economy was improving and it was becoming more apparent that his advanced age — Biden turned 81 in November (Trump is 77) — was an enormous problem for voters and one that Democrats weren’t going to be able to spin away. Still, as of late September, I thought that (i) it had become too late for a full-fledged primary challenge to Biden, and (ii) Biden voluntarily announcing that he wouldn’t run for a second term was a close call but probably failed a cost-benefit test for Democrats.

Since then, Biden’s situation has become considerably worse. If he were 10 years younger, he might still be a 65/35 favorite. But if his campaign is substantially encumbered by his age, he's probably the underdog. If you’re someone who would rather not see Trump re-elected again or who cares about the election for other reasons, it’s time to face the facts. You need to adjust to the new reality and not be mired in anchoring bias by your previous impression of the race." 

From Nate Silver

David Axelrod on CNN's Anderson Cooper 350 last night talking about Ezra Klein's article arguing that President Biden shouldn't run for reelection: 

"Well, I think the president probably cares. I think he reads it. I'm sure it irritates him. I know I've irritated him when I've raised this issue in the past. But I'll tell you what that Monmouth poll didn't pull me because if they had pulled me, I would have said, no, I think Joe Biden is going to be the nominee of the Democratic Party.

I said last November a few things. I said, if you gave me Biden's record and took 10 years off of him, I would have no concerns about this election. But that I thought age was an issue and that screams through every poll.

But the last thing I said was, if Joe Biden wants to be the nominee of the Democratic Party, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party, because there is tremendous loyalty among a lot of the party to the president. I think there's a lot of respect for the president.

And so, I think that's where we are right now. I think only -- there's -- the idea that some delegation of party elders are going to come and visit him at the White House and persuade him to step down is a fantasy. First of all, that's not the way politics works anymore. We're not, you know, in another century.

Secondly, that belies the fact of who Joe Biden is. Joe Biden is a guy who spent his whole life kind of coming up from nowhere to proving to people, you know, that he can -- that he's going to hack it. That he has a chip on his shoulder, and he deserves to. He's accomplished a great deal.

And his attitude is always people underestimate me in there. I'm sure his attitude is they're underestimating me now. So I just, you know, I read Ezra's piece. He said a lot of things that I had said previously, but I don't think that's where we're going to end up.

Well, I think it's true. I mean, listen, Anderson, the body of work that he's done, the things that he's accomplished, the bills that he's passed on a bipartisan basis against all odds, the coalitions he's forged globally and so on, those things don't happen by accident.

He's clearly doing the job and you speak to people around him and they say that. You know, they say he's sharp in meetings and so on. He is not good in front of a camera anymore. I mean, that's pretty clear. And he has trouble with that. And that's how most Americans see him.

And worse than that, that's how social media sees him. They, you know, he can give a brilliant speech and have nine bad seconds, and that becomes a -- it's part of the mean, and that gets, you know, circulated to millions of people on TikTok, particularly younger people. And that's, you know, that has been a real problem for him.

So, yes, no, I do accept that he has governed very, very competently. And Anderson, people -- you spent some time with him for your podcast. You know, I'm sure he was very cogent when he... 

From CNN

This is from what I wrote about President Biden's reelection campaign back in October, responding to bedwetting Democrats and bedwetting commentators who are friendly to Democrats: 

"It's one thing to say that Joe Biden shouldn't run for reelection. But I didn't hear Bill Maher mention anyone who should run for President as the Democrat in the President's place. You can quote James Carville all you want, but Carville doesn't have a Democratic alternative to Trump either. 

What we learned during the Barack Obama years is that the Democratic Party is not good at developing its bench or its farm system, at least at the national level. They're not good at grooming people to take over and become the next leader of the Democratic Party, let alone the next President of the United States. And if you look at approval ratings even in the Democratic Party of Vice President Kamala Harris, someone who I do personally approve of and think she's been good for President Biden, as far as running his administration, but perhaps not politically, the Democratic Party still doesn't have any alternative to President Biden. 

So it's either stick with Joe, or Joe drops out and we see a Democratic free for all, between left-wing Democrats who'll promise the world to everybody and tell everyone it won't cost anything. Versus center-right Democrats who will try to run a general election campaign during the Democratic primaries, but when they think they need more Democrats, while try to talk like they're actually leftists, leaving everybody to believe who is this person and why do they actually believe. Versus The Devil in Donald Trump, with American voters probably choosing The Devil that they already know, over the Democrat." 

From The New Democrat

I talked about this back in October, when Bill Maher was basically trying to make Joe Biden look like the presidential version of deceased U.S. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg, who stayed in too long and then ends up dying, when the Republican Party still had The White House and Senate back in 2020. And then the country goes to hell, etc, because Justice Ginsberg stayed in too long and was replaced by a Conservative Republican. 

And now what those bedwetters are arguing is that if President Biden runs for reelection, he'll lose to Donald Trump, even if Donald Trump is a two-time convicted felon by the time the presidential election comes around. So again we would have a MAGA White House and a MAGA Congress, with Republicans holding and adding to the House and winning back the Senate.

But, as time goes on, things tend to change in American politics. Back in October, it didn't look like Donald Trump might even get one trial and conviction before presidential election. The economy wasn't looking very good, with weak economic and job growth, inflation was still a problem. 

But guess what, 5 months later, Donald Trump is now looking at the possibility of bankruptcy, unless he can meet the premiums on those two New York civil judgements against him and even if he does that, he still might be looking at bankruptcy. 

Mr. Trump will now have to go trial in Manhattan in March, be looking at felony convictions, just from that case. And it looks like the Supreme Court will not just allow for the Washington case against Trump will be tried and decided before the presidential election as well, but his immunity could be tossed by Chief Justice John Roberts and that case gets sent back to Judge Tanya Chutkan in Washington. And the economy moving really well right now, with both strong economic and job growth, rising wages, and even inflation is coming down now. 

I think David Axelrod nailed it last night when he said: 

"And his attitude is always people underestimate me in there. I'm sure his attitude is they're underestimating me now. So I just, you know, I read Ezra's piece. He said a lot of things that I had said previously, but I don't think that's where we're going to end up.

Well, I think it's true. I mean, listen, Anderson, the body of work that he's done, the things that he's accomplished, the bills that he's passed on a bipartisan basis against all odds, the coalitions he's forged globally and so on, those things don't happen by accident.

He's clearly doing the job and you speak to people around him and they say that. You know, they say he's sharp in meetings and so on. He is not good in front of a camera anymore. I mean, that's pretty clear. And he has trouble with that. And that's how most Americans see him.

And worse than that, that's how social media sees him. They, you know, he can give a brilliant speech and have nine bad seconds, and that becomes a -- it's part of the mean, and that gets, you know, circulated to millions of people on TikTok, particularly younger people. And that's, you know, that has been a real problem for him.

So, yes, no, I do accept that he has governed very, very competently. And Anderson, people -- you spent some time with him for your podcast. You know, I'm sure he was very cogent when he... 

Let's face the facts: in a perfect world, at least from a Democratic perspective, we wouldn't have an 81 year old Democratic President of the United States right now. In that world, that President would be in his mid to late 50s right now, with the same economy that President Biden has, but perhaps without a trillion-dollar deficit and 3% inflation. So of course the President has some real reelection challenges that are mostly about his age and how people view his competency. But those problems are easily correctable. 

The way President Biden deals with the weaknesses of his reelection campaign, is to take Nate Silver's advice. Do a series of national TV news interviews and not with just the friendly Democratic news sources like MSNBC. But talk to the network news divisions, including FOX News, someone like a Shannon Breem or even Brett Baier wold give President Biden a fair interview and let the President speak and answer the questions. 

President Biden should also talk to CBS News, ABC News, NBC News, the PBS NewsHour, CNN, or if The CW Network wants to have a prime time special with President Biden, do that as well. 

And then the President should also do some swing state townhalls, where he's talking to mostly Independent voters, as well as blue-collar Democrats and African-American Democrats, who aren't in love with either Joe Biden and Donald Trump and looking for an alternative instead.

To paraphrase David Axelrod, Joe Biden is no longer a good political campaigner in the sense that he can do one campaign event after another and look good in front of the camera, without making any serious mistakes. But he's good with live interviews and he's still very good at the townhalls and talking to people one-on-one.

If President Biden solves the age and competency issues, his approval rating gets up to around 50% or better. He doesn't do that, it will remain in the high 30's. But considering who his likely opponent is in the fall, that might be good enough to get the President reelected anyway. 

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