Harry Litman: 'The Coming Biden Blowout'

Source:Harry Litman talking to David Frum from The Atlantic about the 2024 presidential election.

"Harry talks with David from about his recent article in the Atlantic arguing that the Republican party is galloping ahead with an electoral strategy certain to secure defeat in November 2024. Frum discusses why the polling suggesting that Trump is even with or even ahead of Biden is flawed, and why Trump’s historical track record as a weak candidate will hold in the coming election. They end by discussing the possibility that Trump could change direction as a candidate to pursue a more effective strategy, which Frum suggests is beyond Trump’s capacities." 

From Harry Litman

"The Republican plan for 2024 is already failing, and the party leadership can see it and knows it.

There was no secret to a more intelligent and intentional Republican plan for 2024. It would have gone like this:

(1) Replace Donald Trump at the head of the ticket with somebody less obnoxious and impulsive.

(2) Capitalize on inflation and other economic troubles... 

From The Atlantic 

Just for the record: I sure as hell hope that David Frum is right here. 

The only pushback I have to what Frum is arguing here, is that we went through this in late 2015 and the most of 2016 with Donald Trump against Hillary Clinton. 

During the 2016 election cycle, Trump was considered so damaged for the Republican Party, that not only would Trump lose, but he would lose Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, maybe Indiana as well, to go along with Florida, Ohio, and the rest of the states that HRC had to win to the that election. Plus, Republicans were supposed to lose Congress as well (House & Senate) because with Donald Trump on the top of the ballot, Congressional Republicans wouldn't be able to hold the House and Senate, because they would be tied to Donald Trump, etc. Anyone whose old enough to remember the 2016 general election, knows what happened during those elections.

Now the pushback to what I just said and I agree with this, is we already know what Donald Trump is like as President and he's even more unpopular and in more legal, as well as financial trouble today, Joe Biden already beat him in 2020, and Republicans had a bad year in 2022 because of Donald Trump and his MAGA followers. And despite President Biden's unpopularity, the economy is improving with not just high economic and job growth, as well as low unemployment, but wages are now rising faster than prices again, as David Frum also mentioned. 

The only real prediction about this that I have myself, is I think Donald Trump's legal situation is biggest achilles heel here. He can't afford any convictions before the 2024 presidential election. There's polling out there right now that even 2/3 of the Republican Party would not vote for Donald Trump for President, if he's a convicted felon before election day 2024. And if his Washington trial goes to trial  by let's say the spring or late spring of 2024, he'll probably lose that case by some point during that summer and perhaps be remanded into custody as well, which would officially end his presidential campaign. 

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