Tim Miller, Sarah Longwell & Jonathan V. Last: 'Here's What Needs to Happen'

Source:The Bulwark talking about guess what. 

"The Secret Pod makes an emergency appearance to work through last night's terrible performance by Biden and to urge the Democratic Party to do the responsible thing in this moment." 

From The Bulwark

As I wrote about this yesterday: 

"President Biden's task tonight, is to show that he's in full command, he's doing the job, he has a record to run on and this is what he wants to continue to do as President, if just given another term. While at the same time he's making the case that he's physically and mentally up for the job and doing the job, Donald Trump as the Biden Campaign has already said: "Is only in it for himself."

From The New Democrat

As my colleague Rik Schneider wrote about this earlier today: 

"Just to take on 1 point first. The New Democrat is not going to get into what the race would look like, if President Biden literally steps down and releases his delegates at the Democratic National Convention. I don't think that's going to happen. Whether it should or not, that's a different question. I'm just going to look at this as if the President decides to move forward, and what are the consequences of last night's debate and where the election goes from here. 

If there was anything good about last night's debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, is that Mr. Trump didn't add any new voters to his base. Even with all the baggage of the Biden presidency, mostly relating to the President's age, and inflation, the Trump-Biden race was essentially in a dead heat. At least in the popular vote. Which tells me, as well as a lot of other people, that whatever problems they have with President Joe Biden, they don't like Donald Trump. 

What people don't like about Donald Trump having to do with his self-obsession, his lying, his inability to stick to the same script, they got 100 minutes of that Donald Trump. The problem is that you didn't have a strong, sharp, opponent, for the most part, there to point about all of Donald Trump's lies and hold him accountable for that, with few exceptions." 

From The New Democrat

As my colleague Kire Schneider wrote about this earlier today: 

"If think Jonathan Martin had a great line here when he said: "Joe Biden might not be able to recover. But Trump could still lose it." Democrats, especially the Biden Campaign, need to always remember exactly who they're running against and the actual threat that Donald Trump and MAGA represents and the threat that they are to the country.

The Biden Campaign, assuming that President Biden doesn't step aside, has to go on the offense, after they hopefully successful pivot from the President's bad debate by simply owning his bad performance last night, is simply pound Donald Trump, like you need a knockout to win the fight, or at least the last 3-5 rounds of the fight. 

And while they are doing that, they'll be able to do that with a lot of negative commercials about Donald Trump, not just from the debate but going forward and perhaps even with what DJT's eventual vice presidential selection has said and written about him in the past." 

From The New Democrat

Just to go off what Sarah Longwell said: "I would be very disappointed after that, if Joe Biden decided just to continue to go on. It would be a very selfish proposition. And of course I'll back him and do everything that I can for him. But I think it's wrong. (Talking about Joe Biden continuing with his campaign) And I think there's a consensus that can be reached. And people can go out strong with a consensus candidate that they can back." 

If you are wondering why The New Democrat is going with the center-right, Republican, Never-Trumper reactions to this debate, I'll tell you anyway. We''re not Republicans at The New Democrat. But we are New Democrats and we are center-right, JFK/Henry Jackson/even Joe Biden even Democrats. We know what MSNBC and company is saying. You either have far-left Democrats up there saying that Joe Biden has to step down. Or Democrats trying to argue that the debate doesn't matter. I'm not interested in that. And to their credit, even left-wing, hippie, Rachel Maddow talking about what's the best move going forward, knowing that Joe Biden will most likely still be the Democrat for President. So it's not all MSNBC arguing that it's not a disaster for the President, or he should simply drop out.

And I don't think there's much point in talking about President Biden stepping down, until he actually does that, because it would be like debating what would happen if Donald Trump suddenly plead guilty to all the felonies that he's facing. There's not much point in talking about what it would be like if this happened, if there' very little, if any possibility of it happening.

If you want to defeat Donald Trump, you have to go with the best available candidate, who has their party's nomination for president, who has the best chance at defeating Donald Trump. And right now, for better or for worst, whatever you think of Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom, they're not going to be the Democratic nominee for president in 2024. So we as anti-Trump voters have to decide what's the best strategy for Joe Biden and company going forward. 

I still stand by what I said about the debate yesterday. The President didn't accomplish what he had to do . And we're now even hearing discussions about whether Joe Biden should drop out or not as a result. But going forward, if you don't want Donald Trump to ever be President of the United States again, you have to develop the best strategy that can be used to defeat Donald Trump, knowing that Joe Biden is the only person who can beat Trump.

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Tim Miller & Jonathan Martin: Unpacking Last Night's Debate

Source:The Bulwark talking about Joe Biden's post-debate options.

"Jonathan Martin discusses the strategy behind Biden's failed gamble and whether sitting Democrats would actually publicly push the president to leave the ticket. Sarah Longwell, JVL, and Martin join Tim Miller for the weekend pod." 

From The Bulwark 

As my colleague Rik Schneider said earlier today: 

"Just to take on 1 point first. The New Democrat is not going to get into what the race would look like, if President Biden literally steps down and releases his delegates at the Democratic National Convention. I don't think that's going to happen. Whether it should or not, that's a different question. I'm just going to look at this as if the President decides to move forward, and what are the consequences of last night's debate and where the election goes from here. 

If there was anything good about last night's debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, is that Mr. Trump didn't add any new voters to his base. Even with all the baggage of the Biden presidency, mostly relating to the President's age, and inflation, the Trump-Biden race was essentially in a dead heat. At least in the popular vote. Which tells me, as well as a lot of other people, that whatever problems they have with President Joe Biden, they don't like Donald Trump. 

What people don't like about Donald Trump having to do with his self-obsession, his lying, his inability to stick to the same script, they got 100 minutes of that Donald Trump. The problem is that you didn't have a strong, sharp, opponent, for the most part, there to point about all of Donald Trump's lies and hold him accountable for that, with few exceptions." 

From The New Democrat

If think Jonathan Martin had a great line here when he said: "Joe Biden might not be able to recover. But Trump could still lose it." Democrats, especially the Biden Campaign, need to always remember exactly who they're running against and the actual threat that Donald Trump and MAGA represents and the threat that they are to the country.

The Biden Campaign, assuming that President Biden doesn't step aside, has to go on the offense, after they hopefully successful pivot from the President's bad debate by simply owning his bad performance last night, is simply pound Donald Trump, like you need a knockout to win the fight, or at least the last 3-5 rounds of the fight. 

And while they are doing that, they'll be able to do that with a lot of negative commercials about Donald Trump, not just from the debate but going forward and perhaps even with what DJT's eventual vice presidential selection has said and written about him in the past.

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Jonathan V. Last: The Trump-Biden Debate

Source:The Bulwark give their post-debate analysis.

"Come watch the first 2024 presidential debate with The Bulwark and stay after for our analysis." 

From The Bulwark

Just to take on 1 point first. The New Democrat is not going to get into what the race would look like, if President Biden literally steps down and releases his delegates at the Democratic National Convention. I don't think that's going to happen. Whether it should or not, that's a different question. I'm just going to look at this as if the President decides to move forward, and what are the consequences of last night's debate and where the election goes from here. 

If there was anything good about last night's debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, is that Mr. Trump didn't add any new voters to his base. Even with all the baggage of the Biden presidency, mostly relating to the President's age, and inflation, the Trump-Biden race was essentially in a dead heat. At least in the popular vote. Which tells me, as well as a lot of other people, that whatever problems they have with President Joe Biden, they don't like Donald Trump. 

What people don't like about Donald Trump having to do with his self-obsession, his lying, his inability to stick to the same script, they got 100 minutes of that Donald Trump. The problem is that you didn't have a strong, sharp, opponent, for the most part, there to point about all of Donald Trump's lies and hold him accountable for that, with few exceptions. 

President Biden did call Mr. Trump a liar and a whiner, multiple times, Trump said that they shouldn't be childish on stage, the President called him a child right after that in response. The President said Trump has the morals of an ally cat. But what too many voters from the Biden Campaign's perspective saw last night, was an 81 year old man, who struggles to get his words and thoughts out of his mouth.

I think what we may see from the debate last night, is two politicians who had bad nights at least as far as being able to communicate to new voters. 

In President Biden's case, he has now his own voters worried about whether he can still win at this point. But maybe the popular vote polling stays about the same, because you still have 1-5 Republicans who still don't want to vote for Donald Trump again. And Independents saying they're not ready to vote for the President yet, but they still don't like Donald Trump either. 

So maybe Donald Trump remains the favorite to win in November, or the election leans in his direction, but he hasn't added any new voters beyond his base and Republicans holding their noses and deciding to vote for him again anyway. But I think this could be the best case scenario for Joe Biden. 

The other scenario is, Independents are now saying that they don't like Donald Trump. But they don't think Joe Biden is up for the job physically or mentally. And therefor they're going to vote for Trump and perhaps hope that our governmental institutions are strong enough to hold him accountable and prevent a Donald Trump dictatorship[. Or as at least one person on this Bulwark show: "Maybe American voters now want a dictator." 

I think going forward, the next few days, the weekend and even next week are very important for Joe Biden. He and Vice President Kamala Harris have to be out there and out in public a lot over the next 7-10 days. 

A longtime Republican strategist Cheri Jacobus on Threads said today that President Biden needs to be doing a series of network town halls right now out there, taking questions, speaking to the voters to try to convince these voters that he's still up for the job and can still do a good job. That along with getting Vice President Harris out a lot more, doing a lot more TV, more campaign rallies, perhaps even town halls on her own, I think is the best post-debate advice that anyone can give this campaign. 

As well as what Michael Steele said on MSNBC last night: "The President needs to own his debate performance and not try to deny it, or act like it was better than what everyone else saw."

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John King: 'What to Watch For in the Biden-Trump Debate'

Source:CNN with a little analysis about the debate.

"With less than five months until the election, the stakes are high as President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump make their pitch to voters on key issues such as immigration and the economy." 

From CNN

This is what I said about this debate on Tuesday: 

"Anderson Cooper had a panel last week on CNN talking this upcoming debate as well. And Democratic political analyst Paul Begala had the perfect point here when he said Joe Biden should say: "I'm in it for you. Donald Trump is in it for himself." 

And what I believe that means is Donald Trump is simply running for President again, to stay out of prison. He doesn't get his immunity from the U.S. Supreme Court, he loses the presidential election, he'll become the political and legal version of the goldfish out of water, right in front of hungry kitty cat. He'll be completely exposed and there won't be anything that anyone can do about that to bail him out, until he's convicted again, at least once, probably in 2025." 

From The New Democrat

To John King's point first about which presidential election this feels like: he said it feels like 1992. In 1992, then Governor Bill Clinton, even though the country was just recovering from a recession, dealing with a high budget deficit, high unemployment, high interest rates, high inflation, even with real 2% economic growth, but Governor Clinton needed Ross Perot's 20% of the popular vote to defeat incumbent President George H.W. Bush, whose approval rating at the time was also in the high 30s, low 40s. This is a two-man race in 2024. Robert F. Kennedy JR. can't even get into the debates right now. It's just a matter if he will be able to get enough votes to hurt either of the major candidates or not. 

This feels more like 2012 for me. In 2012, 8% unemployment, the economy growing at around 1%, at least in the 1st two quarters, President Barack Obama's approval rating in the mid 40s. But, we had a Tea Party led House of Representatives and Senate Republican within position of winning back the Senate, and the Republican Party nominating someone who was basically stuck in between a Tea Party populist and a center-right, establishment Republican, leaving too many voters for Mitt Romney wondering who is this guy. 

I think 2024 is different from 1992 and 2012 , at least in this sense. The country knows what it's like to have Joe Biden as President of the United States. They also know what it's like to have Donald Trump as President of the United States. And to go back to what John King said on Anderson Cooper 360 last night, where he said this election is about whether you want to keep the same car, or buy a new one, as Keisha Lance-Bottoms, who was on the same show with John King last night said: "Donald Trump is not a new car. He's a used car." Americans already know what it's like to have Donald Trump as President. 

As Phill Mattingly was essentially saying on this show, American voters like Joe Biden, at least when they see him and to get to hear him speak. And as Republican political strategist Sarah Longwell, whose one of the founding members of The Bulwark Podcast said on CNN a couple weeks ago, American voters outside of MAGA do not like Donald Trump personally or as President. He was always in the upper 30s, to mid 40s in approval, only got 45% of the voter total between 2016 and 2020. 

President Biden's task tonight, is to show that he's in full command, he's doing the job, he has a record to run on and this is what he wants to continue to do as President, if just given another term. While at the same time he's making the case that he's physically and mentally up for the job and doing the job, Donald Trump as the Biden Campaign has already said: "Is only in it for himself."

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Eddie Muller & Paula Zahn: The Barbara Graham Story

Source:Classic Couple look at the Barbara Graham story that was featured on Turner Classic Movies last year.

"On Monday night, January 9, 2023, TCM programming focuses on True Crime. TCM host Eddie Muller will be joined by journalist and newscaster Paula Zahn for the special prime-time programming.

Paula Zahn brings to the discussion her work on On the Case With Paula Zahn an American documentary and news program broadcast on Investigation Discovery since October 18, 2009. The program, now in its 25th season, explores in-depth stories of crime mysteries and interviews with involved individuals, closest to the cases and includes expert analysis. Find where to watch On the Case With Paula Zahn here. Eddie Muller brings to the discussion his expertise as an author, move historian, film restorer, film festival programmer and founder of the Film Noir Foundation, which is dedicated to preserving America’s film noir heritage." 

From Classic Couple

"Henry Graham was addicted to illegal drugs and known as a hardened but low-level criminal. Through him, Barbara met his friends Jack Santo and Emmett "The Weasel" Perkins, both with criminal records. She started an affair with Perkins, who told her about a 64-year-old widow, Mabel Monohan,[7] who was alleged to keep a large amount of cash and jewelry in her home in Burbank, California.

Monohan was a retired vaudeville performer who had previously worked the Keith-Albee circuit. Her ex-son-in-law was 74-year-old Luther B. Scherer (1879–1957), a multi-millionaire who was well known through his ownership of various gambling clubs in locations such as Palm Springs and casinos in Las Vegas. It is speculated that he had deep ties to various crime syndicates. Monahan's daughter Iris had divorced Scherer two years prior and received the Burbank residence in the divorce settlement. Iris shortly thereafter married a different man and moved to New York, leaving her mother, Mabel Monohan, to reside in their former home. Monohan and Scherer had remained close friends after the divorce and their continued friendship piqued public interest, gossip, and rumors that would later prove deadly.[8] One rumor that was widely circulated amongst criminals and in local bars was that Scherer, due to his deep trust of Monohan, had left $100,000 ($1,044,292 value in 2022) cash stashed in a safe within the residence." 

From Wikipedia

I saw I Want To Live with Hollywood Goddess Susan Hayward, playing Barbara Graham, who definitely was a compulsive liar and career criminal.This was part of TCM's month long series about true crime films, with this film being one of them. And their Film Noir expert Eddie Muller hosted this series and had true crime journalist Paula Zahn as one of his guest on this series to talk about this movie. 

To give you an example of how weak the case against Barbara Graham was: imagine if Donald J. Trump was only convicted based on the testimony of Michael Cohen. For me, Donald Trump is a career criminal an conman, who until recently, was never caught committing any felonies. But Cohen alone, especially with his track record as a liar himself, wouldn't have been enough to get a credible conviction of Trump. 

Barbara Graham was basically convicted on the testimony of one of her co-defendants, William Upshaw, who was also a convicted felon. And that's the point that Paula Zahn was making here. And not just the weak case against Graham for 1st degree murder, but they gave her the death penalty based on a weak case. 

California for the last 30 years, maybe longer, has gotten the reputation has being a very hippie, left-wing state. A place where all the social radicals and left-wing political radicals can feel at home and as part of the mainstream. The official nickname of California is the People's Republic of California. 

But in the 1950s, California, except of perhaps San Francisco and the broader San Francisco area, fit in very well with 1950s, Leave it to Beaver, Father Knows Best, Phyllis Schlafly's and Pat Buchanan's culturally collectivist America, where every "real American" was supposed to be the same and believe in the same things. Not that difficult to get 1st degree murder convictions back then. 

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Jack Hunter: Conservatism & Libertarianism

Source:Young Americans For Liberty featuring conservative blogger Jack Hunter.

"JACK HUNTER: CONSERVATISM WITHOUT LIBERTARIANISM?" 

From Young Americans For Liberty 

"Conservatism is a cultural, social, and political philosophy and ideology, which seeks to promote and preserve traditional institutions, customs, and values.[1][2][3] The central tenets of conservatism may vary in relation to the culture and civilisation in which it appears.[4] In Western culture, depending on the particular nation, conservatives seek to promote and preserve a range of institutions, such as the nuclear family, organised religion, the military, the nation-state, property rights, rule of law, aristocracy, and monarchy.[5] Conservatives tend to favour institutions and practices that enhance social order and historical continuity." 

From Wikipedia

"Libertarianism (from French: libertaire, itself from the Latin: libertas, lit. 'freedom') is a political philosophy that upholds liberty as a core value.[1][2][3][4] Libertarians seek to maximize autonomy and political freedom, emphasizing equality before the law and civil rights to freedom of association, freedom of speech, freedom of thought and freedom of choice.[4][5] Libertarians are often skeptical of or opposed to authority, state power, warfare, militarism and nationalism, but some libertarians diverge on the scope of their opposition to existing economic and political systems. Various schools of libertarian thought offer a range of views regarding the legitimate functions of state and private power. Different categorizations have been used to distinguish various forms of Libertarianism.[6][7] Scholars distinguish libertarian views on the nature of property and capital, usually along left–right or socialist–capitalist lines.[8] Libertarians of various schools were influenced by liberal ideas." 

From Wikipedia

I'll get into what Jack Hunter said as well. But if you look at the Wikipedia definition of conservatism, that basically looks like the opposite of MAGA. Show me I'm wrong, if you disagree with that. 

Think about it, MAGA and the broader, right-wing national movement, is always talking about blowing up the system and taking down the establishment. Not that different in language from what the New Left Socialists and Communists were talking about in the late 1960s and early 70s. The difference being that the New Left was talking about taking down "The Man" and replacing it with some type of socialist state. 

Whereas MAGA, would take down the U.S. Government (if their militants had their way) and replace it with some type of nationalistic state, where "The Man" or the men would be back in charge, ruling over everyone else.

If you look at conservatism in it's classical sense, you look at the Calvin Coolidge's, the Robert Taft's, the Barry Goldwater's, conservatism is very similar to what Jack Hunter is talking about. Government, especially the national government, should be very limited in what it does and only do what the states, localities, and the people can't do for themselves, or do well enough for themselves. So that's national security, foreign policy, trade, regulating interstate commerce, and interstate law enforcement. With everything else, including education, social welfare, marriage, gambling, entertainment, reproductive rights, being left up to the states or the people themselves. So in that sense I agree with Jack Hunter.

But conservatism in its original form, is about conserving. I mean that's what it means to be a Conservative, you are someone who believes in conserving. Conserving a certain form of government, like our liberal democratic republic, a certain way of life, like our western liberal democratic values, conserving religious freedom, and all of our individual rights. 

And then you look at libertarianism, again in it's classical form, not the Anarcho-Libertarians, or the so-called Libertarian Populists like the Alex Jones's and others, classical Libertarians put the rights of the individual and individual freedom, over everything else, including public safety. Which is why Libertarians believe that all narcotics should be legal, that even drunk driving should be legal. No speed limits, no age requirements when someone should be allowed to smoke and drink alcohol, that sort of thing. 

So I agree with Jack Hunter that Conservatives and Libertarians are very similar when it comes to individual rights, limited government, that government closest to home is the best government, that sort of thing. But Conservatives put limits on individuals when it comes to public health and safety. 

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Harry Litman: 'Judge Merchan Makes HUGE Decision Before Sentencing Donald Trump'

Source:Talking Feds With Harry Litman talking about Judge Juan Merchan's partial lifting of Convicted Felon Don's gag order.

"Judge Merchan partially lifted a gag order on Trump yesterday while still maintaining some crucial provisions. Harry explains why this is significant." 

From Talking Feds With Harry Litman

This might sound sick, so bare with me: but I don't mean to sound the death row inmate whose trying to convince his guard that he's actually innocent and shouldn't be executed tomorrow night, but I'm actually not a lawyer. I'm just going off the information from what I've read and seen from people who are not just real lawyers, but accomplished lawyers as well. 

I just don't want people to take my observations here as legal observations here. They're at best like observations from legal affairs correspondents who don't have law degrees. But even there I'm relying on those folks information and observations as well. 

I think the lifting of gag order could be a problem for Donald J. Trump. Why do I say that? Anyone whose watched any police documentaries, or followed any high profile case, knows the phrase: "Anything that you can say can and will be held against you in a court of law." 

If Convicted Felon Don uses this order to put anyone whose involved in this case, life, or physical safety in jeopardy, either directly or indirectly, like trying to get someone else to do that for him, or reposting what one of his militants said about someone whose directly involved in this case, those words could come back in directly hurting Donald Trump here. And Judge Juan Merchan could use DJT's own words against him when rendering his sentence here. 

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